Trump approval is positive in only eight of the 50 states days before the November 3 midterm elections, according to the latest Civiqs state-by-state tracker reported by USA Today on October 31, 2026. The president is underwater in 42 states, including every one of the six states where the closest Senate races are being fought, a map that leaves Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers with almost no friendly territory left to expand into.

The eight states still giving Donald Trump a positive net approval rating are Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. Every one of them backed him in the past three presidential elections. Wyoming remains his strongest state, at plus 14 points, while Kansas is exactly even, with 46 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving of his job performance.

Key Points

• Trump approval is positive in only 8 states and negative in 42, according to the latest Civiqs tracker reported October 31, 2026.
• Wyoming is his strongest state at +14; Kansas is tied at 46 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove.
• All six swing Senate states are underwater: Alaska -25, Michigan -26, Maine -29, North Carolina -18, Ohio -18 and Texas -20.
• Even reliably Republican Kentucky (-13) and South Carolina (-10) now give him a negative net rating.
• The national picture points the same way: Emerson put his approval at 37 percent on October 30, its lowest reading for him yet.

What Happened

USA Today published its latest look at the Civiqs tracker on Saturday, October 31, three days before Election Day. Civiqs runs a rolling online tracker of registered voters, and its state-by-state figures have become one of the most closely watched maps of the midterm campaign because they show not just whether the president is popular nationally, but where his standing helps or hurts Republican candidates on the ballot.

The headline has barely moved in the final fortnight, and that is itself the story. Two weeks earlier, on October 14, the tracker still had Trump above water in 10 states, including Kansas and South Dakota, with Wyoming at plus 16. By October 23, the list had shrunk to eight, the same eight that remain positive now. Kansas, which was at minus 1 on October 23, has since recovered to an exact tie, but no state has moved back into positive territory, and Wyoming's lead has narrowed from plus 16 to plus 14.

The six battleground Senate states tell a consistent story. In Alaska, Trump's net approval stands at minus 25. In Michigan it is minus 26, and in Maine minus 29. North Carolina and Ohio both sit at minus 18, and Texas at minus 20. Those are not marginal deficits. They are double-digit gaps in states where Senate control may be decided, and they have persisted through weeks of campaigning, advertising and presidential rallies.

Perhaps more striking for Republicans is what has happened in states they normally count as safe. Kentucky, a state Trump has carried comfortably, now rates him at minus 13. South Carolina rates him at minus 10. When a president is underwater in Kentucky and South Carolina, the problem is no longer confined to swing states or to states he lost. It is a national drag, and Republican candidates in competitive races have to decide, state by state, whether to campaign with him, keep their distance, or try to localise races that voters increasingly treat as a referendum on the White House.

Background and Context

The Civiqs tracker is built from a very large sample collected over a long period. An earlier release based on 133,869 responses from registered voters between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026, put his national approval at 34 percent and disapproval at 60 percent. That release also showed that his approval had fallen in every single state since he returned to office. Kentucky recorded the largest drop, from plus 23 to minus 10, a swing of 33 points. Even Wyoming, his best state, fell from plus 47 to plus 18 over the same period, and North Dakota fell from plus 34 to plus 15, while West Virginia dropped from plus 35 to plus 12.

The state map has therefore narrowed steadily rather than collapsing all at once. In early October, reporting based on the tracker still counted 11 positive states, including Montana and South Dakota. By mid-October that was down to 10, and by late October to eight. The eight that remain are all states he carried in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and all are heavily Republican-leaning. In other words, the president's remaining positive territory is now entirely made up of his core states, with no crossover appeal left on the map.

That matters because midterm elections are usually fought state by state and district by district, and a president's standing in a state shapes everything from fundraising to turnout. A Republican candidate in Texas or Ohio cannot borrow much strength from a president rated at minus 20 or minus 18 at home. A Democrat in Maine or Michigan, by contrast, can run against an unpopular White House without having to persuade voters who already agree with the president. The tracker does not predict votes, and approval is not the same as a ballot choice, but campaigns on both sides read it as a measure of the political weather.

The national polls released in the same week point in the same direction. The New York Times and Siena College poll released on October 21 put Trump's approval at 34 percent, the lowest recorded in that survey's tracking. A Reuters and Ipsos poll on October 5 found 32 percent approval, matching a career low, and an AP-NORC poll on October 1 found 31 percent, the lowest recorded by that survey across both of his presidencies. Different pollsters, different methods, same direction of travel.

Trump Approval Map: What the Eight Positive States Reveal

The geography of the eight positive states is itself revealing. Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming are spread across the South, the Plains, the Mountain West and Appalachia, but they share one feature: none of them is a presidential battleground, and none of them hosts one of this year's decisive Senate races. The map of presidential approval and the map of competitive Senate races barely overlap at all.

Wyoming, at plus 14, is the outlier even among the eight. It is the smallest state by population, the most Republican-leaning in presidential voting, and the state where Trump's margin has historically been largest. That he is at plus 14 there, down from plus 16 two weeks earlier and plus 18 at the start of October, shows that even his floor has softened. North Dakota and West Virginia, the next strongest states in earlier releases at plus 15 and plus 12, are not separately broken out in the October 31 update, but they remain inside the positive group, suggesting their margins are narrower than they were at the start of the month.

Kansas deserves special attention because it sits on the boundary. On October 23 it was at minus 1, effectively tied. On October 31 it is exactly tied, at 46 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. Kansas is also a state with a competitive Senate race this year, and a tied presidential approval rating there is very different from the minus 20 in Texas or minus 26 in Michigan. It suggests a state still genuinely contested, where the final days of campaigning, and the president's own rallies, could still move numbers.

At the other end of the map, the states where Trump is weakest are not a surprise, but the size of the gaps is. Maine at minus 29 reflects a state he lost in all three of his presidential runs and where the Senate race is one of the closest in the country. Michigan at minus 26 and Alaska at minus 25 are states with very different politics that now share a similar verdict on the president. North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, all states with competitive Senate contests, sit between minus 18 and minus 20, a band that would be difficult for any incumbent party to overcome without a major late shift.

Reactions and Quotes

The USA Today report itself carries no new statement from the White House, and neither campaign has issued a fresh response to this specific tracker update in the reporting read for this article. The clearest on-the-record reaction to the wider polling picture comes from Emerson College Polling, whose national survey was published on Friday, October 30.

Emerson found Trump's approval at 37 percent, the lowest he has recorded in Emerson polling, down two points from his previous low of 39 percent, which he had registered in the September, July, June and May surveys. The same poll gave Democrats a 52 percent to 42 percent lead on the generic congressional ballot. Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement: "With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats' congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports."

That assessment captures why both parties are treating the final days as a turnout fight rather than a persuasion fight. If most undecided voters are independents who already disapprove of the president, the Democratic ceiling may be higher than the headline ballot suggests. If Republican turnout surges, as it has in past midterms when the president's party has been energised late, the map could still tighten. Neither outcome is guaranteed by an approval tracker, but the tracker explains why Democratic strategists sound confident and why Republican strategists are urging their voters to treat the election as a choice, not a referendum.

USA Today's own framing is blunt. Describing the president's position days before the midterms, it notes that his unpopularity has continued to sink his approval numbers, even to the point of negative ratings in reliably red states. The tracker, in that reading, is not just a snapshot of one week. It is the end point of a steady slide that began when he returned to office in January 2025 and has continued, with only brief pauses, ever since.

Why It Matters

Midterm elections are historically punishing for the president's party, and they are especially punishing when the president is unpopular. The party in the White House has lost House seats in almost every midterm of the modern era, and the losses have been largest when presidential approval is low. The Civiqs map suggests that 2026 fits that pattern, and may fit it more severely than usual, because the president is not just unpopular nationally but unpopular in the specific states where Senate control will be decided.

Senate control is the highest prize on Tuesday. Republicans hold a narrow majority, and Democrats need only a small net gain to take it. If Trump is at minus 25 in Alaska, minus 26 in Michigan and minus 29 in Maine, Democratic challengers in those states can campaign as a check on an unpopular president. If he is at minus 18 in North Carolina and Ohio and minus 20 in Texas, Republican incumbents and candidates there must win over voters who disapprove of their party's leader, a much harder task than winning over voters who approve of him.

The House picture is similar, though more diffuse. The generic ballot lead for Democrats, 52 percent to 42 percent in Emerson, 53 percent to 44 percent in Reuters and Ipsos, and similar margins in other national polls, suggests a national environment that favours the opposition party. State-level approval adds texture to that national picture: it shows where the Democratic advantage is likely to be largest, where Republican incumbents are most exposed, and where the president's visits might help or hurt. A rally in Wyoming is a very different proposition from a rally in Michigan, and campaigns are making those calculations daily.

There is also a governing consequence that goes beyond Tuesday. A president who enters the second half of his term with positive approval in only eight states will face a Congress, and a country, that treats him as a lame duck earlier than usual. Legislation becomes harder, confirmations become harder, and foreign leaders read the same polls American voters do. Approval does not determine power, but it shapes how much of it a president can actually use.

What Happens Next

The next data point is the election itself. Early voting has already broken records, with 47.9 million ballots cast before Election Day, surpassing the previous midterm record of 45.9 million in 2022. That surge means a large share of the electorate has already voted, and late polling shifts will matter less than they would have in a lower-turnout year. The remaining voters, however, include many of the undecided independents Emerson identified, and both parties are spending the final weekend trying to reach them.

President Trump is campaigning through the final days, with rallies scheduled in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday, November 1, after a brief cancellation earlier in the week. Those stops are in states where his approval is tied or where the Senate race is close, and they are designed to energise the Republican base rather than to win over disapproving voters. Democrats, meanwhile, are campaigning on affordability and on the president's record, arguing that the approval numbers reflect lived experience, not just polling noise.

After Tuesday, the tracker will keep updating, and the question will shift from whether the president is popular to whether the election result changes that. A better-than-expected Republican night could stabilise his numbers. A Democratic wave could push them lower, as opposition victories often do to a president's standing. Either way, the eight-state map of October 31 will be the baseline against which the second half of the term is measured.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many states give Trump a positive approval rating? Eight, according to the latest Civiqs tracker: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Which state gives Trump his highest approval rating? Wyoming, at plus 14 points net approval, down from plus 16 two weeks earlier.

Is Trump underwater in every swing Senate state? Yes. Alaska is minus 25, Michigan minus 26, Maine minus 29, North Carolina minus 18, Ohio minus 18 and Texas minus 20.

What is Trump's national approval rating? Emerson put it at 37 percent on October 30, its lowest reading for him. The New York Times and Siena College put it at 34 percent on October 21.

Does approval predict the election result? No, not directly. Approval measures how voters feel about the president's job performance, while votes are cast for individual candidates. But approval is a strong indicator of the political environment, and campaigns use it to judge where they are strong and where they are exposed.

Read more: Democrats lead Republicans 52-42 in final Emerson poll, Record early voting: 47.9 million ballots already cast, and Federal judge blocks DOJ election-pressure campaign days before midterms.