The final NBC News poll before the 2026 midterm elections gives Democrats a 52-45 lead over Republicans in the contest for control of Congress, with President Donald Trump's job disapproval reaching 60%, the highest figure recorded for him in NBC polling across both of his terms. Released on November 1, 2026, just two days before voters go to the polls on November 3, the survey lands as the last national read on a campaign dominated by the cost of living, the direction of the country and deep dissatisfaction with the economy. Only 40% of registered voters approved of the president's job performance, while 3% were undecided on which party should control Congress — a small group that could still matter in the closest House and Senate races.

Key Points

• Democrats lead Republicans 52-45 on which party voters want to control Congress in the NBC News final poll.
• President Donald Trump's disapproval stands at 60%, against 40% approval — a record high in NBC polling across both his terms.
• Democrats lead by 21 points among independent voters, and by 12 points among the most engaged voters.
• 73% of voters are dissatisfied with the economy, and 51% are dissatisfied with their personal finances — the first time in 30 years of NBC polling that personal dissatisfaction has outnumbered satisfaction.
• The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

What Happened

NBC News released its final pre-election poll on November 1, 2026, conducted among 1,000 registered voters between October 28 and 30. The headline result is a seven-point Democratic advantage on the generic question of which party should control Congress: 52% chose Democrats, 45% chose Republicans and 3% were undecided. That lead is two points wider than in last month's NBC poll, suggesting the Democratic edge grew, rather than narrowed, in the final weeks of the campaign.

The independent vote is where the Democratic advantage is largest. Among independent voters, Democrats led Republicans by 21 points — a margin that, if it held on Election Day, would put many of the most competitive seats in play. Among voters who rated their interest in the midterms at nine or ten out of ten, Democrats led by 12 points; among less interested voters, Republicans led by two points. Turnout, in other words, may decide how closely the final result tracks this poll.

The president's own numbers frame the whole survey. Trump's approval rating stood at 40%, with 60% disapproving — the highest disapproval figure for him in NBC polling in either term. By comparison, in the final NBC poll before the 2018 midterms, his approval was 46% and his disapproval was 52%. The seven-point Democratic lead on congressional control in 2026 is also wider than the six-point lead, 49-43, recorded in that 2018 final poll.

NBC News Final Poll: The Economy Numbers Behind the Headline

Behind the headline, the poll's economic findings are stark. Some 73% of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state of the economy, and 70% said the country was heading in the wrong direction. On personal finances, 51% said they were dissatisfied and 49% said they were satisfied — the first time in 30 years of NBC polling that dissatisfaction with personal finances has exceeded satisfaction.

That personal-finances figure may be the most telling single number in the survey. Presidential elections and midterms are often fought on national statistics, but voters experience the economy through their own bills, wages and savings. A majority saying their own finances are in a worse place than they would like is a difficult backdrop for any governing party, and it helps explain why the generic congressional ballot has moved in the Democrats' favour even though neither party is popular in its own right.

Indeed, the poll's favourability ratings underline that this is not a story of enthusiasm for one side so much as dissatisfaction with the governing side. The Republican Party was viewed positively by 38% and negatively by 50%; the Democratic Party was viewed positively by only 29% and negatively by 52%. Voters, in this reading, are not embracing the opposition — they are registering a verdict on the party in power, and on the president at the top of it.

Background: A Midterm Fought on Change

The 2026 midterms will decide control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, where Republicans currently hold slim majorities. Historically, the president's party loses ground in midterm elections, and the final NBC poll suggests that pattern is holding: 64% of voters said Trump had fallen short of their expectations, against 34% who said he had met them.

The campaign's closing days have reflected that mood. Trump has spent the final weekend rallying in Iowa and Kansas for Republican Senate and state candidates, while Democrats have campaigned on the cost of living and on checks on presidential power. The poll was conducted before those final rallies, so it captures the state of the race as voters entered the last weekend, not any late movement from the closing campaign events.

Reactions and Quotes

The first reports of the poll carried no direct response from either party's campaign leadership, and this article does not invent one. What the reporting did include was NBC analyst Steve Kornacki's historical comparison with the final 2018 poll, when Democrats held a 49-43 edge and Trump's disapproval was 52% — on both measures, the 2026 numbers are worse for Republicans. The survey was conducted jointly by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

Why It Matters

First, control of Congress is the prize. A Democratic House, or a Democratic Senate, would give the opposition the power to block legislation, launch investigations and shape the final two years of Trump's presidency. A Republican hold in both chambers would preserve the president's legislative route, however narrow the majorities. The poll points to the first outcome being more likely, but a seven-point national lead does not guarantee a majority in either chamber, where district and state maps matter as much as the national mood.

Second, the disapproval record matters beyond this election. A 60% disapproval rating, the highest of Trump's two terms in NBC polling, constrains a president's ability to set the agenda even if his party holds Congress. It also shapes how Republican candidates talk about the president in the final days: as an asset in some places, and as a liability to be kept at arm's length in others.

Third, the economy numbers explain the politics. When 73% are dissatisfied with the economy and a majority are dissatisfied with their own finances, elections become referendums on living standards. That is a difficult environment for incumbents of either party, and it is why both campaigns have spent the closing weeks talking about prices, wages and household budgets rather than abstract ideology.

What Happens Next

Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, for the House, the Senate and a series of state races. Early voting has already seen tens of millions of ballots cast, so much of the electorate has already made its choice before this final poll was published. The remaining question is whether Election Day voters, and the small undecided group, break in the same direction as the poll's respondents.

Results will be counted through Tuesday night and, in the closest races, beyond. If the final NBC poll proves accurate, Democrats will be on course for a congressional majority; if turnout skews towards less engaged voters, among whom Republicans led by two points, the outcome could be closer than the national lead suggests. Either way, the first results on Tuesday night will test whether a record disapproval rating and a seven-point ballot lead translate into seats.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NBC News final poll say about the 2026 midterms? It gives Democrats a 52-45 lead over Republicans on which party voters want to control Congress, with 3% undecided.

What is Donald Trump's approval rating in the final NBC poll? 40% approve of his job performance and 60% disapprove — the highest disapproval figure for him in NBC polling across both his terms.

When was the poll conducted, and how many people were surveyed? It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

How do independent voters break in the poll? Democrats lead Republicans by 21 points among independent voters, and by 12 points among voters most interested in the midterms.

When is Election Day 2026? Tuesday, November 3, 2026, when voters will decide control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Related coverage on US News Pulse: our report on Trump's final-weekend rally in Dubuque, Iowa, where he campaigned for Republican candidates ahead of the midterms; our earlier report on Democrat Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's Senate race; and our report on Trump's final New York push backing Bruce Blakeman before Election Day. See: https://usnewspulse.com/elections-2026/trump-brands-michigan-democrat-el-sayed-a-jihadist-at-dubuque-rally-before-midterms , https://usnewspulse.com/elections-2026/democrat-haley-stevens-endorses-republican-mike-rogers-in-michigan-senate-race , https://usnewspulse.com/elections-2026/trump-backs-blakeman-in-final-new-york-push-before-election-day