Tropical Storm Pena Forms South of Hawaii, Forecast to Become Hurricane by Tuesday

Print Date: Nov 7, 2026 || Published Date: Nov 7, 2026

Tropical Storm Pena Forms South of Hawaii, Forecast to Become Hurricane by Tuesday

Tropical Storm Pena formed on Friday in the central Pacific Ocean well south of Hawaii, the National Hurricane Center said, becoming the latest named storm of an unusually active Pacific season fuelled in part by El Niño. At 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, November 6, 2026, Pena packed maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph), with gusts to 60 mph. Forecasters expect it to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday while staying well south of Hawaii. No watches or warnings were in effect, and no hazards were affecting land.

Key Points

Tropical Storm Pena formed on Friday, November 6, 2026, in the central Pacific, well south of the Hawaiian islands.
At 5 p.m. EDT Friday, its centre was at 11.3 degrees north, 150.1 degrees west, about 650 miles southeast of South Point, Hawaii, and about 1,350 miles east-southeast of Johnston Island.
Pena had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, gusts to 60 mph, and a central pressure of 1002 millibars, moving west at 12 mph.
Forecasters expect the storm to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday, while staying well south of Hawaii.
No watches or warnings were in effect, and no hazards were affecting land.

What Happened

Pena took shape in the open waters of the central Pacific, far from land. The National Hurricane Center, which monitors the basin from its Honolulu office, confirmed the formation on Friday and began issuing advisories.

At 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, the storm sat about 650 miles southeast of South Point, the southernmost tip of the Big Island, and about 1,350 miles east-southeast of Johnston Island. Its winds were modest by tropical cyclone standards, but the forecast is what makes Pena notable: the hurricane centre expects it to reach hurricane strength — sustained winds of at least 74 mph — by Tuesday, November 10.

Background: The Central Pacific and an Active Season

The central Pacific basin covers the ocean between 140 degrees west longitude and the International Date Line, and storms forming there receive names from Hawaiian-language lists.

Forecasters have linked part of this year's activity to El Niño, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that favours tropical cyclone formation: warmer seas give developing storms more energy, and shifting winds can reduce the shear that tears young storms apart. Hawaii sits near the northern edge of the cyclone belt, and direct hits are rare, as most storms forming south of the islands track west on the trade winds and pass well clear. Even so, Hawaii has had a wet autumn: just last month, the remnants of Tropical Depression Olana dragged deep tropical moisture over the islands, prompting a statewide flood watch and forecasts of five to eight inches of rain.

Tropical Storm Pena: Forecast Track, Winds and Timeline

The forecast for Pena is, for now, straightforward. The storm is expected to continue west at around 12 mph, gradually organising over warm open water, and to build toward hurricane status by Tuesday. The waters of the central Pacific remain warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone, and the upper-level winds over the storm are expected to stay light enough to let its circulation tighten.

The forecast track keeps Pena well south of Hawaii throughout, hundreds of miles from South Point at its closest approach, and no part of the Hawaiian chain is in its forecast cone. That is why no watches or warnings have been issued, and none are expected unless the track shifts significantly north. Tracks can change, particularly for a storm still organising, and the centre will update its forecast every six hours. For now, the main audience for Pena's advisories is mariners crossing the central Pacific, who are advised to monitor the storm and avoid its core.

Reactions and Official Guidance

The hurricane centre's first advisories on Pena were brief and factual: a new tropical storm, a position, a wind speed, a direction of travel, and a forecast of strengthening. There was no warning for land, because no land lay in the storm's path. Hawaii's emergency agencies routinely monitor storms at this distance.

The storm also tests the seasonal outlook. An active season does not end on a calendar date, and November storms are a reminder that the Pacific can produce tropical cyclones well beyond the summer months. Forecasters will be watching whether Pena reaches hurricane strength on schedule, or whether cooler waters or stronger shear intervene first.

Why It Matters

Pena matters first as a measure of the season. A Pacific season shaped in part by El Niño has already kept forecasters busy, and a storm reaching hurricane strength in November would underline how long the active pattern has lasted.

It matters, too, as a reminder of Hawaii's exposure. Direct hits are rare, but the islands have felt Pacific systems all autumn, from flooding rains to heavy surf, and a distant storm can still send long-period swells toward south-facing shores. For the wider Pacific, Pena is a shipping concern: the central Pacific carries traffic between the Americas and Asia, and a strengthening hurricane on a westward track is a hazard vessels must route around.

What Happens Next

The hurricane centre will issue fresh advisories on Pena every six hours, updating its position, wind speed and forecast track. The next milestone is whether the storm strengthens as expected over the weekend and reaches hurricane strength by Tuesday as forecast, and then how long it holds that strength before weakening over cooler water or in stronger upper-level winds.

For Hawaii, the outlook remains calm. No watches or warnings are expected, and the storm is forecast to stay well to the south, though south-facing shores may see a gradual increase in surf as its swells arrive. Should the track shift north, the hurricane centre would say so in its advisories and Hawaii's emergency officials would respond accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where is Tropical Storm Pena?
At 5 p.m. EDT on Friday, November 6, 2026, Pena was at 11.3 degrees north, 150.1 degrees west, about 650 miles southeast of South Point, Hawaii, moving west at 12 mph.

How strong is Tropical Storm Pena?
Pena had sustained winds of 45 mph, gusts to 60 mph, and a central pressure of 1002 millibars. Forecasters expect hurricane strength, with winds of at least 74 mph, by Tuesday.

Is Tropical Storm Pena a threat to Hawaii?
No. It is forecast to stay well south of Hawaii, with no watches or warnings in effect. South-facing shores may see increased surf as its swells arrive.

When will Pena become a hurricane?
Forecasters expect it to reach hurricane strength by Tuesday, November 10, 2026, while remaining well south of Hawaii over the open central Pacific.

Why has the Pacific hurricane season been so active?
Forecasters link part of this year's activity to El Niño, which warms the equatorial Pacific and favours tropical cyclone formation, with warmer seas and reduced wind shear.