Lauren Boebert loses reelection, CNN projected on Monday, November 9, 2026, as retired Navy Rear Adm. Eileen Laubacher, a Democrat, is set to defeat the Republican congresswoman in Colorado's 4th Congressional District. The win flips the reddest seat in Colorado and ends Boebert's tenure in Congress after three terms. With about 98 percent of the expected vote counted, Laubacher led 48.8 percent to 47.9 percent, a margin of roughly 3,200 votes, with about 8,500 ballots still outstanding. The Associated Press had not yet called the race on Monday afternoon, and Boebert had not conceded.

Key Points

• CNN's Decision Desk projected on Monday that Democrat Eileen Laubacher will defeat Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado's 4th Congressional District.
• With about 98 percent of the vote counted, Laubacher led 48.8 percent to 47.9 percent, a margin of about 3,200 votes, with Libertarian Douglas Mangeris at 3.3 percent.
• About 8,500 ballots remain outstanding, and NBC News estimates Boebert would need close to 68 percent of them to win.
• The Associated Press had not yet called the race, and Boebert had not conceded. Her campaign says it is probing what it called "unusual voting patterns" and may seek a recount.
• The flip is part of the Democrats' midterm sweep that gave them control of both chambers of Congress.

What Happened

CNN's projection landed on Monday, November 9, six days after Election Day, closing a week of uncertainty in a race too close to call since the polls closed. Laubacher had led from election night, but the margin kept narrowing as late ballots were counted, and neither the networks nor the Associated Press would call it while thousands of votes remained uncounted. By Monday afternoon, about 98 percent of the expected vote had been counted, and Laubacher held 48.8 percent to Boebert's 47.9 percent, a lead of roughly 3,200 votes.

The math facing Boebert is steep. With roughly 8,500 ballots estimated outstanding, NBC News calculated that she would need close to 68 percent of the remaining vote to erase Laubacher's lead. No batch of late-counted ballots has broken that heavily in her favour, and CNN's Decision Desk concluded the gap was too large for the outstanding vote to close. Results remain unofficial until county canvasses certify them.

Background and Context

Boebert, a close ally of President Donald Trump and one of the most outspoken conservatives in the House Republican conference, moved to the 4th District in December 2023 to preserve her political future after nearly losing her old seat. She had won re-election in Colorado's 3rd District in 2022 by just 546 votes. In the 4th District, rated safe Republican by the Cook Political Report, she won by 11 points in 2024.

The 4th District, which stretches across Colorado's eastern plains, is the state's most Republican district, and no Democrat had been considered a serious threat there in years. When the race was still uncalled last Wednesday, Laubacher led by about 1.5 points, down from about 2.9 points on election night, and Boebert's camp argued the trend favoured her. Instead, the late-counted ballots held Laubacher's lead.

Laubacher, 58, is a first-time candidate who served more than three decades in the Navy, rising to rear admiral, and later served as a National Security Council official. A former Republican who became a Democrat in 2024, she campaigned chiefly on affordability.

Lauren Boebert Loses Reelection: What the Numbers Show

The final shape of the race is a narrow Democratic win in territory where Republicans usually win comfortably. Laubacher's 48.8 percent to Boebert's 47.9 percent is a margin of under one percentage point, with Mangeris's 3.3 percent keeping both candidates below a majority.

Boebert's path to a comeback runs through the roughly 8,500 ballots still outstanding, including military and overseas ballots and votes awaiting signature verification. She would need close to 68 percent of them, a share far above anything she has won in any batch counted so far.

A recount is possible but not automatic. Because the margin exceeds Colorado's automatic recount threshold, Boebert would have to request a recount and pay for it herself. Her campaign has not yet said whether it will do so.

Reactions and Quotes

Boebert had not conceded as of Monday afternoon, and her campaign signalled it was not ready to accept the projection. The campaign said it was probing what it called "unusual voting patterns" and was weighing a recount request, without offering evidence of any irregularity in the count.

Laubacher campaigned as a pragmatist focused on the cost of living, and her victory fits the pattern of the 2026 midterms, in which Democrats made gains by pressing affordability in districts Republicans had long held. Her Navy and National Security Council background gave her an unusual profile for a first-time challenger in a deep-red district.

The result adds to a Democratic sweep in Colorado's House delegation. Democrat Manny Rutinel already flipped the 8th District, ousting first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, and Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd was clinging to a narrow lead in the 3rd District after trailing on election night.

Why It Matters

Losing the 4th District is a symbolic blow for Republicans because it is Colorado's reddest seat, the kind of district the party treats as safe in any year. A Democratic win there shows how far the midterm wave reached, flipping seats well beyond the competitive battlegrounds both parties had targeted.

It also removes one of the House's most prominent conservative voices. Boebert, first elected in 2020, became a national figure for her confrontational style and her close alliance with Trump. Her defeat, alongside the Democrats' capture of both chambers of Congress, reshapes the House Republican conference as it heads into the minority.

What Happens Next

The result now moves to certification. County canvass boards will complete their counts, including military and overseas ballots and cured signatures, and the result will become official once the canvass is complete. If Boebert requests a recount, it would be conducted at her campaign's expense and could extend the process.

Laubacher is expected to take her seat in January, when the new Democratic House majority is seated. Boebert's three terms in Congress will end with the current session, and her next move, whether another run for office or a return to private life, is not yet known.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Colorado's 4th Congressional District?
CNN's Decision Desk projected on Monday, November 9, 2026, that Democrat Eileen Laubacher will defeat Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert. The Associated Press had not yet called the race as of Monday afternoon.

What was the margin?
With about 98 percent of the expected vote counted, Laubacher led 48.8 percent to 47.9 percent, a margin of roughly 3,200 votes, with Libertarian Douglas Mangeris at 3.3 percent.

Has Lauren Boebert conceded?
No. Boebert had not conceded as of Monday afternoon, and her campaign said it was probing what it called "unusual voting patterns" and may seek a recount.

Why is this result significant?
Colorado's 4th District is the state's most Republican district, rated safe Republican by the Cook Political Report. A Democratic flip there shows the scale of the 2026 midterm wave and ends the congressional career of one of the House's most prominent conservatives.