Gargash Warns of Long Uncertainty as US-Iran Settlement Looks Difficult

ABU DHABI — A senior Emirati official warned on Monday that the Middle East should prepare for a long stretch of uncertainty, saying a comprehensive US-Iran settlement to end the war now in its ninth month “appears to be difficult” even as diplomacy continues.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate that the region faces “a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted.” His warning landed a day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not believe a breakthrough was imminent.

Gargash said the consequences of the US war with Iran “may persist for a long time,” and that the UAE must invest in its “defensive capabilities, the maintenance of credible deterrence, and stronger international security partners.” He said the UAE had opposed the war from the outset, and thanked France, Israel, Greece, Egypt and India for their “support and solidarity,” noting some countries had helped defend the UAE against Iranian attacks earlier this year.

Key Points

• Anwar Gargash said a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran to end the war “appears to be difficult.”
• He warned the region should prepare for “a long period of uncertainty” with no decisive resolution or stable regional order in sight.
• The UAE will invest in defensive capabilities, credible deterrence and stronger international security partners, he said.
• Gargash said the UAE opposed the US war with Iran from the outset and thanked five countries for their support and solidarity.
• His warning followed Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying on Sunday that he did not believe a breakthrough was imminent.

What Happened

Gargash spoke on Monday, November 9, 2026, at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, the UAE capital’s annual gathering of diplomats and analysts, where the US-Iran war dominated discussion. He framed it as a planning assumption: the region should expect a prolonged period with no decisive resolution or stable order in sight.

That framing matters because the UAE, a close US partner and major Gulf trading hub, has spent much of the war balancing its security ties with Washington against the risks of a conflict on its doorstep. Gargash said the uncertainty requires sustained UAE engagement with Iran and other partners, some of it “transactional by necessity”.

Background: A War in Its Ninth Month

The US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, and is now in its ninth month. The United States has imposed what President Donald Trump calls the largest naval blockade in history on Iranian ports, while Iran has repeatedly threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Fighting has spilled beyond the two combatants, with strikes spilling into Gulf states.

Diplomacy has continued through mediators. Qatar, the chief mediator, has presented a two-day “bridge deal” trading blockade relief and frozen funds for nuclear inspections. Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House on Monday. Trump said on Sunday that fresh strikes were “highly unlikely” while talks progress.

Why a US-Iran Settlement Looks Difficult

The gap between the two sides’ demands remains the central obstacle. Tehran’s conditions include an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of wartime sanctions, the release of frozen funds and compensation for war damage. Washington wants a firm, verifiable commitment that Iran will not rebuild its nuclear programme.

Rubio said on Sunday the talks “have not been particularly productive because the Iranian demands are simply unacceptable, and in some cases they are outrageous, ridiculous, and detached from reality.” There are also no direct negotiations: proposals move through intermediaries, principally Qatar, making compromise harder to test. Strikes continue meanwhile: Iran said US forces fired projectiles at Qeshm Island on Sunday night, and a drone attack halted Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field, cutting about two-thirds of Kurdistan’s power supply.

Reactions and Quotes

Gargash’s central warning was blunt: the region should prepare for “a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted.” He added that the war’s consequences “may persist for a long time,” framing the conflict as a lasting condition rather than a brief interruption. On the UAE’s posture, he said it will invest in “defensive capabilities, the maintenance of credible deterrence, and stronger international security partners” — it will not simply wait for diplomacy to succeed.

Rubio’s remarks on Sunday provided the backdrop. “I have no progress to report,” he said before a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in France, adding he would not say the sides were “on the verge of a breakthrough.” Trump, speaking to CNN on Sunday, struck a different note, calling fresh strikes “highly unlikely” while talks progress. The contrast is itself part of the uncertainty Gargash described.

Why It Matters

Gargash’s warning matters because the UAE is not a bystander. It is one of the Gulf’s largest economies, a major oil producer and trading hub, and a host to US forces. When a senior Emirati official says publicly that no settlement looks close, it signals that governments across the region are planning for a long conflict rather than a quick deal — planning that shapes defence spending and oil policy.

For the United States, the assessment is a reminder that its Gulf partners do not share Washington’s confidence that a deal is near. The UAE opposed the war from the outset, Gargash said, and its call for sustained engagement with Iran suggests Abu Dhabi wants channels to Tehran kept open whatever happens at the negotiating table.

What Happens Next

The immediate focus is Monday’s White House meeting between Trump and Qatar’s prime minister, the mediator carrying the two-day bridge-deal proposal. Whether it produces movement will be the first test of whether Gargash’s pessimism or Trump’s optimism is closer to the mark. Rubio is with G7 allies in France, and Vance’s few days to reach a deal run out this week.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Anwar Gargash?

Anwar Gargash is a senior Emirati official and diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, a former minister of state for foreign affairs.

What did Gargash warn about?

He warned the Middle East should prepare for “a long period of uncertainty” and said a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran “appears to be difficult.”

Why does the UAE’s view matter?

The UAE is a major Gulf economy, oil producer and trading hub that hosts US forces and sits beside the Strait of Hormuz.

What is the current state of US-Iran talks?

Talks continue through mediators, principally Qatar, which has proposed a two-day bridge deal. Rubio said on Sunday he had “no progress to report,” while Trump said fresh strikes were “highly unlikely” while diplomacy continues.

What happens next?

Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister on Monday, Vance has a few days to pursue a deal, and Rubio is with G7 allies in France.

Related reading: Rubio: Iran Talks Made ‘No Progress’ • Qatar’s 48-Hour ‘Bridge Deal’ Plan • Trump Held Off Weekend Strike on Iran