The Alaska Senate race has flipped. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola now leads Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan by just 626 votes out of 213,873 ballots counted so far, in one of the closest and most closely watched contests left from the November 3 midterm elections. Peltola has 102,701 votes, or 48.02 percent, against Sullivan's 102,075 votes, or 47.73 percent, with 394 of 401 precincts reporting. The Associated Press still lists the race as "Too Early to Call", and thousands of absentee and early votes remain uncounted, so the narrow lead is far from final.

Key Points

• Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan by 626 votes: 102,701 (48.02%) to 102,075 (47.73%), out of 213,873 votes counted.
• 394 of 401 precincts have reported, but thousands of absentee and early votes are still to be counted.
• The Associated Press still calls the race "Too Early to Call", one of only two uncalled Senate races, alongside Mississippi.
• Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, with official ranked-choice tabulations due on November 18 if no candidate wins a first-choice majority.
• The race no longer decides control of the Senate, but it will set the size of the Democratic majority, already at least 54 seats.

What Happened

The lead changed hands as counting continued after Election Day, reversing the picture reported earlier in the week, when Sullivan held a lead of 1,677 votes. The latest count shows a race separated by less than three-tenths of one percentage point, a margin small enough that the remaining ballots could move it again. Election officials are still working through absentee and early votes, including ballots from rural precincts that are believed to favour Peltola, and mail absentee ballots can still arrive within the state's acceptance window.

The other candidates on the ballot also matter to the final arithmetic. Independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., the namesake candidate whose presence has drawn intense attention throughout the campaign, has 3,583 votes, or 1.68 percent. Republican Gerald Heikes has 4,821 votes, or 2.25 percent. Under Alaska's system, those votes do not simply disappear if no candidate reaches a majority on first choices. Instead, the lowest-placed candidates are eliminated in rounds, and their voters' next choices are redistributed until one candidate passes 50 percent.

That is why November 18 matters. If Peltola's lead holds through the remaining first-choice count, the ranked-choice tabulation that day will still decide the winner if neither candidate has a first-choice majority.

Background/Context

Alaska's Senate contest has been unusual from the start. Sullivan, first elected in 2014, sought a third term backed by President Donald Trump. Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to the United States House, ran a nationally watched campaign in a state where independent voters can be decisive.

The race was also fought against legal controversy before any ballot was cast. A federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's pre-election lawsuit, a decision that was appealed, and a separate criminal investigation connected with the recruitment of the second Dan Sullivan has continued. Peltola has denied involvement in that recruitment.

Alaska Senate Race: Why a 626-Vote Lead Is So Fragile

A lead of 626 votes sounds concrete, but in a count of more than 213,000 ballots it is exceptionally fragile. It represents about 0.29 percent of the votes counted so far, well within the range that late-arriving absentee ballots, ballots from remote communities, and the ranked-choice redistribution process could erase or extend. Rural precincts, where mail takes longer and where Peltola is believed to have support, are among those still being tallied, which is one reason analysts are cautious about treating the current order as the final order.

Ranked-choice voting adds a second layer of uncertainty. If neither leading candidate reaches a majority on first choices, the second and later choices of voters who backed Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. will decide the outcome. A candidate trailing narrowly on first choices can still win after redistribution.

Reactions/Quotes

There is no declared winner, and that is itself the most important official position in this race. The Associated Press, whose calls are followed across the country, has kept the contest at "Too Early to Call", reflecting both the narrow margin and the volume of votes still outstanding. Election officials have continued to release updated totals as precincts report and absentee ballots are processed, rather than offering a projection ahead of the evidence.

The absence of a call has not stopped the result being read politically. Democrats have already celebrated winning the Senate majority, to which Alaska would add. Republicans have pointed throughout to the namesake-candidate controversy. Neither side can yet claim the seat.

Why It Matters

Alaska matters for three reasons. First, close elections test confidence in the count itself, and a transparent, unhurried count is the best answer to suspicion from any side. Second, the seat will shape the Senate's working majority, including its room on nominations, oversight and legislation.

Third, Alaska is a test of ranked-choice voting under maximum pressure. With a namesake candidate drawing more than five times the current margin, how the tabulation is conducted and explained will be watched by other states considering similar reforms.

What Happens Next

Counting continues in the coming days, with absentee and early votes still arriving and being processed. The key date is November 18, when official ranked-choice tabulations are due. If a candidate has a first-choice majority by then, that candidate wins outright. If not, the elimination and redistribution rounds will produce a winner, and the result will be certified through Alaska's normal process.

Until that tabulation, expect the lead to move, possibly more than once. Small batches of ballots from rural areas can shift a 626-vote margin quickly, and neither campaign should be treated as having won or lost on a single update.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is leading the Alaska Senate race? Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan by 626 votes in the latest count, 102,701 to 102,075, but the race has not been called.

Why has the race not been called? Because 394 of 401 precincts have reported, thousands of absentee and early votes remain uncounted, and the margin is less than 0.3 percent of votes counted so far.

What is ranked-choice voting? Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a first-choice majority, the lowest candidates are eliminated and their votes are redistributed according to voters' next choices until one candidate passes 50 percent.

When will Alaska's Senate winner be known? Official ranked-choice tabulations are due on November 18, which should settle the race if the count is complete by then.

Does Alaska decide control of the Senate? No. Democrats already hold at least 54 seats, so control is settled. Alaska will decide the size of that majority.

For context, read our earlier report on the race when Sullivan led by 1,677 votes: Alaska Senate race still uncalled as Sullivan leads Peltola by 1,677 votes. Also see our coverage of the wider midterm results: Trump endorsement loses its gold standard as midterm candidates fall across America.