Four names stand at the front of the early race for the White House, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the Republican side, and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on the Democratic side.

None of the four has formally launched a campaign, and the parties' nominating contests are more than a year away. But with the 2026 midterm elections just nine days behind the country, the survey offers the first clear snapshot of a 2028 presidential race that is already taking shape: two tightly bunched fields, a president who may stay on the sidelines, and a Democratic bench that has yet to produce a clear favourite.

Key Points

• The Reuters/Ipsos poll, published Thursday, November 12, 2026, puts JD Vance and Marco Rubio at the front of the Republican field, and Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg at the front of the Democratic field.
• Among Republican voters, 45% rated Rubio an "excellent" presidential candidate and 43% said the same of Vance, a gap well inside the survey's margin of error.
• Ossoff and Buttigieg each earned an "excellent" rating from 29% of Democratic voters, leaving the Democratic field wide open.
• The poll surveyed 1,705 adults nationwide, including about 500 registered voters from each party, and was completed on Monday, November 10, with a five-point margin of error per party.
• President Donald Trump told CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday that he would "not necessarily" endorse a candidate in the Republican primary.

What Happened

The survey is the first major national look at the 2028 field since voters went to the polls on November 3. On the Republican side, Rubio edges Vance by two points in the "excellent" rating, 45% to 43%, effectively a tie. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis sits third among Republicans, rated excellent by 32% of the party's voters.

On the Democratic side, the picture is even more open. Ossoff and Buttigieg share the lead at 29% each, ahead of Harris and Newsom at 23% each and Ocasio-Cortez at 15%. No Democrat reaches even a third of the party's voters on the "excellent" measure.

Ossoff's standing follows his re-election victory last week by 18 percentage points in Georgia, a state Trump carried by two points in 2024. He was the only Democratic senator seeking re-election in a state Trump won, and his wide margin has made him one of the most talked-about names in the early Democratic conversation.

Trump has privately quizzed allies on whether they prefer Vance or Rubio, but told "60 Minutes" on Sunday that he would "not necessarily" endorse in the primary, leaving the two leaders to build their own cases with voters and donors over the coming year.

Background and Context

The 2028 contest is forming unusually early. Vance and Rubio are the two most visible figures in the Trump administration after the president himself: Vance as vice president and the administration's leading negotiator in the talks with Iran, and Rubio as secretary of state. Both would enter a primary with national name recognition few challengers could match.

Buttigieg ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and served as transportation secretary under President Joe Biden, giving him a national profile and a donor network few Democrats can match. Harris, who has said she goes "back and forth" on another run for the White House, remains a major figure in the party, though she trails the two leaders in this survey.

Ossoff, 39, is the freshest face of the four. First elected to the Senate in 2021, he has just won a second term by a margin that stunned even his own party, in a state where Democrats have often struggled.

2028 White House Race: What the Numbers Say

The Republican numbers describe a two-person race with a clear gap behind it. Rubio and Vance are bunched at the top, DeSantis trails by more than ten points, and no other Republican named in the survey comes close. With Trump declining to anoint a successor, the contest between his vice president and his secretary of state looks set to define the Republican primary.

The Democratic numbers describe the opposite: a field with no front-runner. Four candidates sit between 23% and 29%, and the gap between first and fourth is just six points. That spread points to a long, competitive primary in which debates, fundraising and the early contests could reshape the order quickly.

Reactions and Quotes

Trump's comment to "60 Minutes" was the most direct signal in the survey's coverage. Asked whether he would endorse in the Republican primary, he said he would "not necessarily" do so, keeping his options open while his two leading potential successors compete for his supporters.

Ossoff has previously played down talk of a presidential run. After his re-election victory, he said he had "zero interest" in running for president and would serve his full six-year term in the Senate. None of the four leaders has announced a campaign, and no responses to the poll from Vance, Rubio or Buttigieg were reported in the Reuters account.

Why It Matters

Early polls shape the race even when they do not predict it. Donors, activists and the media use them to decide who is taken seriously, and a strong early showing can unlock the money and organisation a campaign needs. A weak one can end a candidacy before it starts.

Trump's refusal to endorse matters just as much. In past open primaries, an outgoing president's backing has often settled the contest early. By staying out, Trump leaves the Republican field open and guarantees a genuine contest between the two men closest to him. For Democrats, the open field is both opportunity and risk: the party has just won control of both chambers of Congress, and its next nominee will inherit that momentum.

What Happens Next

No launches are expected immediately. The nominating contests are more than a year away, and presidential campaigns are typically announced in the year before the election, once candidates have tested the waters with donors and early-state visits.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who leads the early 2028 presidential race?
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead the Republican field, and Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg lead the Democratic field, per the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Has anyone announced a 2028 campaign?
No. None of the four leaders has formally launched a campaign, and the nominating contests are more than a year away.

How was the poll conducted?
Reuters/Ipsos surveyed 1,705 adults nationwide, including about 500 registered voters from each party. It was completed on Monday, November 10, with a margin of error of five points per party.

Will Donald Trump endorse in the Republican primary?
Trump told CBS's "60 Minutes" on Sunday that he would "not necessarily" endorse, while saying he has asked allies whether they prefer Vance or Rubio.

When do voters choose the 2028 nominees?
The primaries and caucuses begin in early 2028, more than a year from now, with Iowa and New Hampshire traditionally voting first.

Related coverage: Ossoff's 18-point re-election win in Georgia, Trump may stay out of the 2028 race and Harris goes "back and forth" on a 2028 run.