The number of international students arriving in the United States has fallen 28% since 2024, dropping to its lowest level since the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic, new federal data show — and scientists warn the decline could slow the progress of American research for years to come.

Data from the federal National Travel and Tourism Office, reported by Nature on Friday, show 277,000 incoming student-visa holders arrived in August 2026, down from 387,000 in August 2024. The fall was driven by the two countries that send the most students to the United States: arrivals from India dropped by about 50,000 and arrivals from China by about 23,000.

Key Points

• August arrivals fell 28% since 2024 — from 387,000 to 277,000 — the lowest since 2020, federal travel data reported by Nature show.
• Applications from international students to US PhD programmes fell 21% from 2025 to 2026, a survey of 55 leading research universities found.
• Nearly six in 10 colleges lost foreign graduate students this fall (average fall 13%), and 45% saw fewer foreign undergraduates.
• Some 90% of colleges blamed restrictive federal policies, including the student-visa crackdown and steep new H-1B and Optional Practical Training fees.
• More than a third of colleges expect enrolment to fall further next year.

What Happened

August is the month when most international students enter the United States for the academic year, and the National Travel and Tourism Office counts every student-visa holder who arrives. Its data, reported by Nature on Friday, November 13, show a drop of 110,000 arrivals in two years — a fall of 28% that takes the total below anything seen since the pandemic shut campuses and borders in 2020.

The decline is not only about arrivals. Applications from international students to US PhD programmes fell 21% from 2025 to 2026, according to a survey of 55 members of the Association of American Universities. Doctoral students are the backbone of university laboratories, and a fall of that size in a single year is a warning sign for the future of American research.

A survey of 203 US colleges, released on Wednesday, November 11, by NAFSA, Oxford University Press and Studyportals, found the same pattern. Nearly six in 10 colleges reported a drop in international graduate students this fall, with an average fall of 13%, and 45% also said they had fewer foreign undergraduates enrol.

Background and Context

International students have long been central to American higher education. They fill graduate places in science and engineering, staff research laboratories and pay full tuition fees that help universities balance their budgets. For decades the United States has been the first choice for ambitious students from India, China and dozens of other countries, and that flow has underpinned the country’s lead in science and technology.

That position is now under strain. The Trump administration has tightened scrutiny of international students, with social media checks, tougher stay rules and thousands of visas revoked. It has also sought steep new fees for the H-1B visa and for Optional Practical Training, which lets foreign graduates work in the United States after their studies. Some policies are being challenged in court, but colleges say the uncertainty alone puts students off.

International Students in the US: Where the Decline Is Sharpest

India and China, the two largest sources of international students, account for most of the fall. Arrivals from India dropped by about 50,000 between August 2024 and August 2026, and arrivals from China by about 23,000. Together the two countries explain roughly two-thirds of the total decline of 110,000.

The mood among recruiters is bleak. “Our agents in India in particular are telling us that they are seeing a drastic decline in inquiries for US graduate study and that many prospective students are either considering other destinations or postponing study plans,” one university respondent told the survey.

Colleges are already changing course. Some 37% of those surveyed said they planned to diversify recruitment and tap new markets over the next 12 months. One institution said it would pivot to the Philippines, Canada and Colombia to offset losses from India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

Reactions and Quotes

Fanta Aw, executive director and chief executive of NAFSA, said the findings confirmed what colleges had already been seeing. “These survey results affirm what we’ve observed before: national policies matter to international students making major decisions about where to study, conduct research, or start a career,” Aw said in a statement on Wednesday.

Researchers who spoke to Nature warned that the declines could slow the progress of US science, as fewer foreign doctoral students means fewer researchers in American laboratories. Pennsylvania State University has linked its loss of students directly to budgetary challenges.

Some 90% of the colleges surveyed cited restrictive federal policies as a significant obstacle to international enrolment. Just under half, 47%, also said tuition and living costs posed a significant barrier — price as well as policy is shaping students’ choices.

Why It Matters

The fall matters most for science. International students make up a large share of doctoral researchers in American universities, and a 21% drop in PhD applications in one year points to thinner laboratories and slower research ahead. The United States has built its scientific lead in part by attracting the best students from around the world; if those students go elsewhere, the lead narrows.

It matters for university finances too, since international students generally pay full tuition, and for America’s standing: students who study here often stay to work and start companies. A generation choosing Asia or Europe instead is a slow loss of influence.

What Happens Next

Colleges do not expect a quick recovery: 44% predicted international enrolment would stay at the same depressed levels next year and 37% expected it to fall further. Universities will spend the next year recruiting in new markets, expanding online courses and cutting budgets. The clearest test will come next August, when the new arrival figures show whether the fall has levelled off — or deepened.

Frequently Asked Questions

How far have international student arrivals in the US fallen?
August arrivals fell 28% since 2024, from 387,000 to 277,000, the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Which countries saw the biggest drops?
India saw the largest fall, with about 50,000 fewer arrivals, followed by China, with about 23,000 fewer, between August 2024 and August 2026.

Are PhD applications falling too?
Yes, by 21% from 2025 to 2026, a survey of 55 members of the Association of American Universities found.

Why are colleges blaming federal policy?
Some 90% of surveyed colleges cited restrictive federal policies, including the student-visa crackdown and steep new H-1B and Optional Practical Training fees.

Will the numbers recover next year?
Most doubt it: 44% expect enrolment to stay depressed and 37% expect it to fall further, the NAFSA survey found.

Related coverage: International students turn away from US and UK as visa rules push them to Asia and Europe; H-1B extension rule change would hit Indian workers hardest, USCIS data shows; US revokes record 300,000 visas under Rubio in unprecedented review.