US Existing Home Sales Fall to 16-Year Low in October as Mortgage Rates Top 7%

US existing home sales fell sharply in October to their lowest level in more than 16 years, as mortgage rates above 7 per cent kept buyers on the sidelines, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday, November 12, 2026.

Sales fell 5.5 per cent from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units — the weakest pace since August 2010 and below the 3.85 million economists had expected in a Reuters poll. Compared with a year earlier, sales were down 8.8 per cent, showing how deeply the highest borrowing costs in a generation have frozen the American housing market.

Key Points

• Existing-home sales fell 5.5 per cent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million — the lowest since August 2010 and below the 3.85 million forecast in a Reuters poll.
• Sales were down 8.8 per cent from a year earlier, with declines in the South, Midwest and West and no change in the Northeast.
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed above 7 per cent in late August and reached 7.40 per cent by mid-September, averaging 7.18 per cent last week.
• The median existing-home price still rose 0.4 per cent from a year ago to $421,900, the highest for any October on record.
• Inventory rose 1.3 per cent to 1.59 million homes, or 5.1 months of supply — the most since November 2015 — while first-time buyers made up just 29 per cent of sales.

What Happened

The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday that completed sales of previously owned homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million in October. That is the slowest pace since August 2010, when the market was still reeling from the financial crisis. The October reading missed the 3.85 million rate economists had forecast, and the 8.8 per cent fall from October 2025 was one of the sharpest annual declines in recent years.

Sales fell in the South, the Midwest and the West, the three largest regions by volume, and were unchanged in the Northeast. The figures count completed transactions, so they reflect deals agreed weeks earlier, when mortgage rates were at their peak.

Background: How Rates Got Here

Borrowing costs are the story of this market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage moved above 7 per cent in late August and climbed to 7.40 per cent by mid-September, the association said, and averaged 7.18 per cent last week. Rates have risen 142 basis points since the United States and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, a conflict that pushed up energy prices and rattled bond markets.

High rates have squeezed the market from both sides. Would-be buyers face monthly payments hundreds of dollars higher than a few years ago, while many owners who locked in cheap mortgages in 2020 and 2021 will not sell and give up those rates — the lock-in effect that has kept listings scarce even as demand has cooled.

US Existing Home Sales: Prices Stay High Even as Deals Dry Up

The most striking feature of the October report is the gap between sales and prices. Even as transactions fell to a 16-year low, the median price of an existing home rose 0.4 per cent from a year earlier to $421,900, the highest median for any October. Prices have held up because supply, while improving, is still tight.

Inventory rose 1.3 per cent in October to 1.59 million homes for sale, giving the market 5.1 months of supply at the current sales pace — the most since November 2015, but still below the six months that economists generally consider a balanced market. Sellers have not been forced to cut prices, and many would-be buyers are simply waiting rather than bidding. The result is a stand-off: fewer homes changing hands, but little relief for anyone hoping a slow market would mean cheaper homes.

Reactions and Quotes

Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, put the problem plainly: “Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023.”

The report also underlined how far the market is from normal for first-time buyers: just 29 per cent of October sales, down from 31 per cent in September and 32 per cent a year ago, against the roughly 40 per cent share of a robust market. With rates near 7 per cent and the median price above $420,000, the deposit and monthly payment for a first home remain out of reach for many younger households.

Why It Matters

Housing is one of the largest drivers of the American economy, and a frozen market reaches well beyond real estate agents’ offices. Every home sale typically triggers spending on moving, furniture, appliances and renovations, and supports jobs in construction, lending and legal services. When sales fall to a 16-year low, much of that spending disappears.

The squeeze falls hardest on first-time buyers, who have no home to sell and no equity to draw on, and on younger families trying to move for work or for more space. A market where prices stay high while deals dry up also leaves policymakers with a dilemma: housing costs feed into inflation, yet the high borrowing costs cooling demand are the same ones keeping buyers out.

What Happens Next

All eyes now turn to whether mortgage rates ease from here. The 30-year rate averaged 7.18 per cent last week, below its mid-September peak, and any sustained move lower would bring buyers back quickly — demand has proved highly sensitive to even small rate changes. The next monthly report will show whether October was the bottom or the start of a longer slide, and the spring buying season will be the real test: a weak spring would confirm that affordability, not just autumn seasonality, is holding the market back. For now, sellers are holding prices, buyers are waiting, and the market is stuck.

Frequently Asked Questions

How far did US existing home sales fall in October 2026?
They fell 5.5 per cent from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units — the lowest since August 2010 — and were 8.8 per cent lower than a year earlier.

What is the 30-year mortgage rate now?
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.18 per cent last week, after rising above 7 per cent in late August and reaching 7.40 per cent by mid-September.

Why are home prices still rising if sales are falling?
Supply is still tight. Inventory stood at 1.59 million homes, or 5.1 months of supply, so sellers have not had to cut prices even as buyers pull back.

What share of buyers are first-time buyers?
Just 29 per cent in October, down from 32 per cent a year ago and well below the roughly 40 per cent share seen in a healthy market.

Which regions saw sales fall?
Sales fell in the South, Midwest and West in October and were unchanged in the Northeast.

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