Netanyahu's Position Weakens in Israel as Ultra-Orthodox Ally Withholds Support

Benjamin Netanyahu's position in the battle to stay on as Israel's prime minister weakened sharply on Thursday. United Torah Judaism, a longstanding ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to recommend any candidate to form a government, while an Arab-led party endorsed his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot. The twin blows landed the same day President Isaac Herzog was due to meet both men separately in Jerusalem to decide who has the best chance of breaking the deadlock left by Israel's October 27 election.

The development leaves Netanyahu, whose Likud won the most seats but whose wider coalition fell short of a majority, facing a narrowing path back to power. With neither bloc able to command 61 of 120 Knesset seats, Herzog's choice carries unusual weight.

Key Points

• United Torah Judaism, a longstanding ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to recommend any candidate.
• An Arab-led party endorsed Gadi Eisenkot on Thursday; the other is expected to follow.
• Herzog meets both men separately on Thursday night and has until November 11 to choose who forms a government.
• Likud won the most seats of any single party with 27, but Netanyahu's coalition holds only 53 of 120; Eisenkot's bloc holds 48 and Arab-led parties 19.
• The Central Election Committee said on Wednesday the election's integrity had not been compromised.

What Happened

Thursday's setback came from a quarter he has long counted on. United Torah Judaism, one of the two major parties representing ultra-Orthodox voters and a fixture of his past coalitions, told the president it would not recommend any candidate. The decision removes a pillar of support just when Netanyahu needs every endorsement he can gather.

Meanwhile, the arithmetic moved in Eisenkot's favour. One of Israel's two Arab-led parties endorsed the former military chief on Thursday, and the other was expected to follow later in the day. Both men have ruled out governing with the Arab-led parties, but their endorsements still matter: a candidate who can count on 19 Arab-held seats as well as his own bloc looks markedly stronger.

Herzog will meet both men separately at his Jerusalem residence on Thursday night, wrapping up party meetings he started on Wednesday. He has met the smaller factions in ascending order of size, culminating with Yashar and Likud, and has called on the parties to do their utmost to avert another election.

Background: A Deadlocked Election

Israel's October 27 election ended in deadlock, with neither man on a clear path to a majority. Likud won the most seats of any single party, with 27 in the 120-seat Knesset, but Netanyahu's wider nationalist-religious coalition took only 53 in total. Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu coalition, spanning four centre-left to right-wing Jewish-led parties, won 48. Two parties representing Israel's Arab minority won an unprecedented 19 seats, making them the decisive bloc.

Herzog accepted the certified results on Wednesday, November 4, from Central Elections Committee chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg in Jerusalem. The commission found no evidence of irregularities that compromised the election, dealing a blow to Netanyahu's claims of tampering. Herzog told party leaders the election was over and it was time to face reality, and opened two days of consultations.

Netanyahu's Position Weakens as Allies Step Back

Thursday's moves reveal much about Netanyahu's standing with the partners he needs most. United Torah Judaism's refusal is not a defection to Eisenkot, but a public withholding of support Netanyahu has relied on for years. The message from his own camp is that the old coalition cannot simply be reassembled.

The Arab parties' endorsements point the same way. Their 19 seats are the largest Arab representation in Israel's history, and backing Eisenkot gives the former chief of staff a plausible route to a majority that Netanyahu, whose coalition stops at 53, does not have. A minority government tolerated from outside remains part of the arithmetic Herzog must weigh.

Netanyahu has seized on an investigation into possible vote tampering to cast doubt on the results, accusing Arab-led parties of stealing the vote. Critics accuse him of trying to undermine results he denies undermining, and the committee said on Wednesday the election's integrity had not been compromised. Its head, Justice Noam Sohlberg, has called on elected officials to protect public trust rather than shake it.

Reactions and Quotes

Herzog struck a sombre note as the consultations reached their final stage. “Any reasonable person need only look at the security and diplomatic challenges before us, at the changing region around us, and remember the issues tearing us apart from within, to understand that an immense responsibility rests upon us,” the president said.

Sohlberg was blunter when he delivered the certified results on Wednesday. “This is a real danger. One of the foundations of democracy is the peaceful transfer of power,” he told Herzog, adding that high turnout, including among the Arab minority, was a blessing.

Netanyahu's far-right allies have meanwhile pressed for a harder line. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has called for the immediate arrest and interrogation of Arab party leaders, a demand that has deepened the crisis around the transfer of power and drawn sharp criticism from Eisenkot's camp.

Why It Matters

The contest matters far beyond Israel's borders. The country is at war with Iran since late February, and who leads it through its next phase, and how that leader handles relations with Washington, will shape the region. A government that cannot be formed, or one formed on a knife's edge, would leave war policy with a caretaker prime minister with a shrinking mandate.

It also matters for Israeli democracy. The election produced the highest turnout since 1999, and the unprecedented Arab representation reflects a vote that cut across the country's deepest divides. Whether the result is respected will set the tone for Israeli politics for years.

What Happens Next

Herzog has until November 11 to decide who goes first. After his Thursday-night meetings, he will weigh which candidate has the best chance of assembling a majority of 61 seats. The chosen candidate then has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to build a coalition.

If neither man can do it, the mandate passes to another candidate, and if all fail, Israel heads to another election. Thursday's endorsements have tilted the balance toward Eisenkot, but the arithmetic can shift again before the deadline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the most seats in Israel's October 27 election?
Likud won the most seats of any single party with 27, but Netanyahu's coalition holds only 53 of 120, eight short of a majority.

Why did United Torah Judaism withhold its support?
The ultra-Orthodox party, a longstanding Netanyahu ally, declined on Thursday to recommend any candidate.

Who is Gadi Eisenkot?
Eisenkot is a former Israeli military chief who leads Yashar. His anti-Netanyahu coalition won 48 seats, and an Arab-led party endorsed him on Thursday.

When will President Herzog decide?
Herzog has until November 11 to choose. He meets both men separately on Thursday night, November 5.

What happens if no one can form a government?
The chosen candidate has 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension. If all fail, Israel must hold another election.

Read more: Herzog accepts certified Israel election results and opens government talks and Netanyahu doubles down on ‘stolen’ election claims as Shin Bet chief targets Arab leaders.