Brent Crude Falls Below $100 for First Time Since October as Midterm Rout Hits Oil

Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, for the first time since early October, as a sweeping Democratic victory in the United States midterm elections reshaped how traders view the war with Iran, American energy policy and the outlook for global oil demand.

Key Points

• Benchmark Brent crude fell more than 4% on Wednesday to $98.76 a barrel at around 1605 GMT, its first close below $100 since early October.
• United States benchmark West Texas Intermediate tumbled 4.5% to $91.73, extending a sharp three-day slide in oil prices.
• The fall followed Democrats winning both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterms, a result traders read as a possible easing of war and energy pressure.
• Iran warned on the same day that the war would widen if the United States resumed attacks, and reported four oil tankers on fire after hitting mines near the Strait of Hormuz.
• The slide leaves Brent almost $15 below its Friday close of $113.43, reversing much of the rally that had pushed prices to a six-month high in October.

What Happened

Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped more than 4% on Wednesday, November 4, to $98.76 a barrel at around 1605 GMT. The move took the contract below the symbolic $100 level for the first time since early October, a threshold traders watch closely because it often shapes petrol prices and inflation expectations.

West Texas Intermediate, the United States benchmark, fell 4.5% to $91.73 a barrel on the same day. The two benchmarks have now fallen sharply for three sessions in a row. Brent lost 7.63% on Monday, November 2, closing at $104.77, and then slipped again on Tuesday, November 3, to $103.60, its lowest in about four weeks. Wednesday's drop extended that retreat.

The timing mattered. The fall came the day after Americans voted in the midterms, in which Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. Markets had already been moving on the prospect of a diplomatic end to the eight-month war, and the election result strengthened the bet that Washington's approach could change, even though fighting has not stopped.

Background and Context

Oil prices had rallied almost 14% in October to a six-month high, driven by the war and fears over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That rally lifted Brent to $113.43 last Friday, before sentiment turned. On Monday, signals from both Washington and Tehran that a deal might be possible triggered the first steep fall, with Brent down 7.6% and West Texas Intermediate down 7.4%, its biggest daily loss since July 27.

Tuesday brought a partial steadying near $105, even as reports emerged of a United States strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Wednesday's break below $100 therefore marked a further step in the same direction, rather than an isolated one-day move.

The war itself began in late February 2026 and is now in its ninth month. It has repeatedly moved oil, shipping and gas prices, because Iran sits beside the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil passes. Any threat to that route tends to move Brent first.

Brent Crude Below $100: What Drove the Fall

Traders linked Wednesday's drop directly to the midterm result. A Democratic Congress is seen by many in the market as more likely to press for a negotiated end to the war and to restrain further military escalation. That expectation, rather than any single announcement on Wednesday, was enough to push prices through $100, as traders sold positions built up during October's rally.

At the same time, the fundamentals behind the rally were being questioned. A long war had pushed prices sharply higher, and a sustained price above $110 was starting to weigh on consumers and businesses. A move back below $100 does not by itself mean the war is over, but it signals that the market now puts a lower probability on a sudden, severe supply shock than it did a week earlier.

Reactions and Quotes

Iran's supreme leader warned on Wednesday that the war would widen if the United States resumed attacks, dismissing hopes that the midterm result alone would change American policy. The warning was a reminder that Tehran does not view the election as a settlement, and that any diplomatic opening remains fragile while military operations and sanctions continue.

Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said on the same day that President Donald Trump had lost out to Tehran both in the war and in the political arena after the midterms. Iranian officials also said four oil tankers had caught fire after hitting mines near the Strait of Hormuz, underlining how dangerous the waterway remains even as headline oil prices fall.

Why It Matters

For American drivers, a lower Brent price usually feeds through, with a lag, into lower petrol and diesel prices, although refining costs, taxes and local competition also matter. For households already facing high living costs, a central issue in the midterm campaign, even a modest fall in fuel prices can ease pressure on budgets and on inflation.

For the wider economy, cheaper oil can help growth and reduce costs for transport, manufacturing and farming, but it also cuts revenues for oil-producing states and companies. For importing countries in Asia and Europe it offers some relief after months of elevated energy costs.

What Happens Next

Traders will now watch whether Brent can hold below $100 or quickly rebounds above it. A sustained break lower would suggest the market believes diplomacy has a real chance, while a sharp bounce would suggest the midterm move was mainly profit-taking after October's rally. Further statements from Washington, Tehran and mediators, and any new incident near Hormuz, could move prices within hours.

The next tests are political as much as military. Democrats take control of Congress in January, but the current administration remains in office, and the war, sanctions and naval blockade remain in place. Until there is a concrete agreement on sanctions relief, shipping and Iran's nuclear programme, traders are likely to stay cautious.

Frequently Asked Questions

How far did Brent crude fall on November 4?

Brent fell more than 4% to $98.76 a barrel at around 1605 GMT on November 4, 2026, its first close below $100 since early October.

What happened to United States oil prices?

West Texas Intermediate fell 4.5% to $91.73 a barrel on the same day, extending a slide that began with a 7.4% fall on Monday, November 2.

Why did traders link the fall to the midterms?

Democrats won both chambers of Congress on November 3, and traders bet that a Democratic Congress could ease tensions and energy pressure, even though the war continues.

Does a price below $100 mean the war is ending?

No. Iran warned the war could widen if the United States resumed attacks, and tankers were reported on fire near Hormuz the same day.

What should drivers expect next?

Lower crude prices usually feed into fuel prices with a lag, but refining costs, taxes and local competition also affect pump prices.

Related coverage: Trump pauses Project Freedom Hormuz operation after one day and Trump says Iran war was a piece of Republican midterm losses.