Final NYT/Siena Polls: Democrats Lead All Seven Key Senate Races Before Election Day

The final NYT/Siena polls of the 2026 midterm campaign, released on Sunday, November 1, put Democrats ahead in all seven of the Senate battleground races they surveyed, two days before voters decide control of Congress on Tuesday, November 3. The surveys, conducted among likely voters between October 23 and November 1, show Democratic leads ranging from a single point in Iowa to 11 points in Michigan, and they immediately reshaped the closing argument of a campaign that has been fought, above all, over the cost of living.

Key Points

• Democrats lead in all seven Senate battlegrounds surveyed: Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa.
• Only two leads fall outside the margin of error: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan (53% to 42%) and James Talarico in Texas (50% to 43%).
• Iowa is effectively tied, with Josh Turek ahead of Ashley Hinson by a single point, 48% to 47%.
• Republicans currently hold the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-seat majority.
• The same surveys give Democrats leads in all seven governor's races covered, including eight points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan.

What Happened

The New York Times and Siena University published their final round of battleground polling on Sunday, covering the seven states where the Senate majority is most plausibly in play. The headline is unmistakable: every one of those races now shows a Democratic candidate in front. The size of the leads, however, tells a more careful story. Five of the seven are within or close to the margin of error, which means that on the evidence of these polls alone, the Senate could still go either way.

Michigan produced the largest margin. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Representative Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, by 53% to 42%, a lead of 11 points with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points. In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%, a seven-point advantage with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points. Those are the only two Senate leads in the set that sit beyond the full margin of error, and they are the two results the Democratic campaign will quote most often in the final 48 hours.

Elsewhere, the picture is tighter. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by 51% to 45%, a six-point edge against a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49% to 44%, with Libertarian David Graham at 4%, against a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 49% to 44% in the special election for the seat Vice President JD Vance vacated, also with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

The two closest races are Alaska and Iowa. In Alaska, former Representative Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 48% to 46%, inside a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by 48% to 47%, a single point against a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points. Siena's own summary calls Iowa virtually tied, and its director was careful to say that a majority for either party remains possible.

Background/Context

The Senate arithmetic explains why these seven states matter so much. Republicans hold the chamber 53 to 47, and 35 of the 100 seats are on the ballot on November 3, alongside all 435 House seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, counting the two independents who caucus with the party. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach the 218 needed for a majority. That is why a clean sweep of seven battlegrounds would be transformative, while a split of the close races would leave the chamber almost exactly where it started.

The polls also fit a broader pattern of late-campaign data pointing the same way. The Times/Siena surveys put President Donald Trump's approval rating at just 38% across the seven surveyed states, and they give Democrats a nine-point advantage over Republicans on the cost of living across those states, with Democrats ahead on that issue in all seven. That echoes the NBC News final poll covered by US News Pulse, which put Democrats ahead 52% to 45% nationally on the generic ballot with Trump's disapproval at 60%, and the Times poll tracker, which had Trump's approval at 36% nationally, the lowest pre-midterm mark for any president in 80 years.

It is also worth remembering what these polls are not. A poll is a snapshot of likely voters at a moment in time, not a forecast and not a result. The Times/Siena fieldwork ran from October 23 to November 1, so it captures the closing days of the campaign but not the final weekend's rallies, nor the tens of millions of early votes already cast. Sample sizes ranged from 610 likely voters in Alaska to 1,215 in Texas, and every state result carries a margin of sampling error that, in five of the seven Senate races, is large enough to swallow the lead it measures.

Final NYT/Siena Polls: The Seven Senate Races in Detail

State by state, the final NYT/Siena polls read as follows. Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 53%, Mike Rogers (Republican) 42%, a lead of 11 points. Texas: James Talarico (Democrat) 50%, Ken Paxton (Republican) 43%, a lead of seven points; Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988, which is why this result, if it holds, would be the night's biggest upset. Maine: Troy Jackson (Democrat) 51%, Susan Collins (Republican) 45%, a lead of six points against one of the Senate's best-known incumbents. Kansas: Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 49%, Roger Marshall (Republican) 44%, David Graham (Libertarian) 4%, a lead of five points in a state where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (Democrat) 49%, Jon Husted (Republican) 44%, a lead of five points in the special election for the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Alaska: Mary Peltola (Democrat) 48%, Dan Sullivan (Republican) 46%, a lead of two points, well inside the five-point margin of error. Iowa: Josh Turek (Democrat) 48%, Ashley Hinson (Republican) 47%, a lead of one point that Siena itself describes as virtually tied. Taken together, the set points to a Democratic night, but the honest reading is narrower: two strong leads, three plausible leads, and two races that are, statistically, dead heats.

The governor's races in the same surveys tell a similar story, with Democrats ahead in all seven states covered. In Michigan, Jocelyn Benson leads John James by 52% to 39%. In Maine, Hannah Pingree leads Bobby Charles by 49% to 37%, with independent Richard Bennett at 8%. In Iowa, Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn by 51% to 43%. In Alaska, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Bernadette Wilson by 54% to 46% on a ranked-choice voting basis. In Ohio, Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by 49% to 43%. Kansas and Texas are too close to call on this evidence: Cindy Holscher leads Ty Masterson by 48% to 47% in Kansas, and Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott by 48% to 47% in Texas.

Reactions/Quotes

Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, framed the results with deliberate caution. "Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11)," Levy said, while adding that a Democratic Senate majority is "a distinct possibility" but that "a Senate majority for either party remains possible". On Iowa, he was blunter still, calling the race "virtually tied". That is the language of a pollster who knows his own margins of error: the direction is clear, the outcome is not.

Other late polling points in the same direction but with smaller Democratic leads, which is itself a useful warning against over-reading any single survey. YouGov polls taken from October 26 to 29 had El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by 51% to 47% in Michigan, Talarico ahead by 51% to 47% in Texas, Brown ahead by 50% to 48% in Ohio and Hamilton ahead by 50% to 49% in Kansas, while putting Republicans narrowly ahead for governor in Texas and Kansas. The pattern is consistent across pollsters; the scale is not. Averaging them together, Democrats are favoured in most of these races, but none of the close ones is safe.

The Trump campaign's closing message has been built for exactly this environment. At his final rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday, the president leaned into attacks on his opponents and warned that he might have to become "Mr. Veto" if Democrats win Congress, a rare public acknowledgement that his party could lose one or both chambers. Democrats, for their part, have spent the final week hammering the cost of living, an issue on which the Times/Siena data give them a nine-point edge across the battlegrounds. Both campaigns, in other words, are now arguing about the same election, just from opposite ends of it.

Why It Matters

If the Times/Siena numbers are close to right, the consequences extend far beyond seven Senate seats. A Democratic Senate would end the Republican trifecta that has defined the second Trump term, giving Democrats the power to block judicial nominations, cabinet appointments and any new legislation, and to run investigations with subpoena power for the first time in this presidency. A Republican hold, even by a single seat, would preserve the president's ability to confirm judges and fill his administration without Democratic votes. That is the entire stakes of Tuesday, compressed into a handful of states.

The Texas and Kansas results matter most symbolically. A Democratic win in Texas, where the party has not carried a Senate race since 1988, or in Kansas, where the drought stretches back to 1932, would signal a realignment rather than a routine midterm swing, and it would force a painful Republican reckoning about a campaign fought on affordability in states the party has long taken for granted. Conversely, if those leads evaporate on election night, as polling leads in traditionally Republican states have done before, the story will be about the limits of polling in an era of low response rates and late-deciding voters.

There is also a narrower, practical point. Five of these seven races sit inside or near the margin of error, which means that turnout operations, weather, ballot-counting rules and the sheer volume of early voting could decide them. More than 50 million Americans had already voted early before the final weekend, and the campaigns' ground games are now worth as much as their advertising. In races separated by one or two points, the side that gets its voters to the polls on Tuesday wins, whatever the polls said on Sunday.

What Happens Next

Voting takes place on Tuesday, November 3, with polling hours varying by state and time zone. The first polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, and the last, in Alaska, close at 1 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Counting will begin as polls close, with early results and exit-poll analysis emerging through Tuesday night, though several of these races, particularly Alaska's ranked-choice count and any race within a point or two, may not be callable on election night.

Watch three things as results come in. First, whether the Texas and Kansas leads survive contact with actual ballots, or whether they fade as they have in past cycles. Second, whether Michigan's 11-point margin holds, which would confirm the largest Democratic lead in the set and suggest a broader national wave. Third, whether Iowa and Alaska, the two statistical ties, break late, and in which direction, since those two seats could decide the majority either way. If Democrats sweep all seven, the Senate flips with room to spare. If they win only the two outside the margin of error, the chamber stays Republican.

US News Pulse will cover election night as results are called, state by state, with the same battleground-by-battleground approach. Until then, treat every poll, including this one, as a snapshot: useful for understanding where the race stands, useless as a substitute for the votes themselves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do the final NYT/Siena polls show?

Democrats lead in all seven Senate battlegrounds surveyed: Michigan by 11 points, Texas by seven, Maine by six, Kansas and Ohio by five each, Alaska by two and Iowa by one. Only the Michigan and Texas leads fall outside the margin of error.

Who needs to win what to control the Senate?

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, counting the two independents who caucus with them. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach 218.

When is Election Day?

Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The first polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time and the last, in Alaska, at 1 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Some close races may not be called on election night.

How reliable are these polls?

The surveys covered 610 to 1,215 likely voters per state between October 23 and November 1, with margins of error from 3.4 points in Texas to 5 points in Alaska. Five of the seven Senate leads sit inside or near those margins, so those races are effectively tied in statistical terms.

What about the governor's races?

Democrats also lead in all seven governor's races in the same surveys, by eight points or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan, with Kansas and Texas too close to call.

Related coverage: NBC News final poll: Democrats lead 52-45 as Trump disapproval hits 60%, Trump approval falls to 36%, lowest pre-midterm mark in 80 years and Early voting passes 50 million as Democrats lead Republicans before midterms.

Sources: Siena Research Institute final New York Times/Siena polls, released November 1, 2026; The New York Times/Siena survey summaries; YouGov polls, October 26-29, 2026; NBC News final poll.