Trump Endorsement Win Rate Falls to 67% as Allies Blame His Picks for Midterm Rout

Donald Trump’s endorsement win rate fell to 67% in the 2026 midterm elections, and the blame game inside his own movement has already begun. Days after Democrats swept Republicans out of their congressional majorities on November 3, right-leaning commentators and some of the president’s own supporters are pointing the finger at the candidates he pushed onto the ballot — loyalty-vetted picks who won their primaries almost every time, then lost when it mattered. Ballotpedia’s numbers show a kingmaker whose crown slipped: 96% of his backed candidates won their Republican primaries, but only two-thirds survived the general election.

Key Points

• Donald Trump’s endorsement win rate fell to 67% in the general election, down from 89% two years ago and 79% in 2020 (Ballotpedia).
• Just half of the 26 Senate candidates he endorsed won, even though all but two of those races were in states he carried in 2024.
• Ken Paxton lost to Democrat James Talarico by 12 points in Texas, Darline Graham lost in South Carolina and Vivek Ramaswamy lost by 8 points in Ohio.
• A total of 46 Trump-backed House candidates lost, and just nine of his 23 picks for governor won.
• Exit polls showed 15% of non-MAGA Republicans defecting to Democrats, and about 75% of Americans now live in states with Democratic governors.

What Happened

Democrats flipped more than 40 House seats, seven Senate seats, five governor’s mansions and as many as a dozen state legislative chambers on November 3, ending Republican control of Congress. But the post-mortem inside the Republican Party has not focused on the Democrats’ campaign. Instead, USA TODAY reported on Saturday, November 7, that right-leaning commentators and some MAGA figures are blaming President Trump himself for pushing flawed, loyalty-vetted candidates onto the November ballot.

The charge is that loyalty mattered more than electability. Trump’s endorsements were close to a guarantee in Republican primaries — 96% of his backed candidates won them. In the general election, that power collapsed: his 67% success rate was far below the 89% of two years ago and the 79% of 2020.

Background and Context

Trump’s endorsement has been the most valuable currency in Republican politics for a decade. A rally appearance could settle a primary overnight, and candidates competed fiercely for his favour. That power held through the primaries this year: challengers backed by the president swept aside incumbents and rivals alike, including in races where party leaders had warned the endorsed candidate was weak.

The general election exposed the other side of that bargain. In Texas, Trump ignored pleas from Senate leaders to back incumbent John Cornyn, throwing his weight behind Attorney General Ken Paxton instead. Paxton lost to Democrat James Talarico by 12 points in a state Trump himself won by almost the same margin. Conservative host Glenn Beck called it “the worst campaign I’ve ever seen anybody run.”

Trump Endorsement Win Rate: The Numbers Behind the Rout

The Senate picture was the starkest. Of the 26 candidates Trump endorsed for the US Senate, only 13 won. All but two were in states he won in 2024, which makes the 50% strike rate hard to blame on a hostile map. In South Carolina, Trump-backed political novice Darline Graham lost the seat her late brother had held. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy lost by 8 points to Democrat Amy Acton after a controversial advertisement featuring her estranged mother — an ad Trump had urged him to stand by.

The losses ran down the ballot. Forty-six Trump-backed candidates for the House lost, and only nine of his 23 picks for governor won. With Democrats now holding five more governor’s mansions, about 75% of Americans live in states led by Democratic governors. Exit polls added one more damaging detail: 15% of non-MAGA Republicans voted for Democrats, a defection rate that turned close races into routs.

Reactions and Quotes

The criticism is coming from inside the tent. Beck’s verdict on the Paxton campaign — “the worst campaign I’ve ever seen anybody run” — was aimed at a candidate Trump had personally championed over the objections of Senate leaders. Other right-leaning commentators make the same argument more broadly: the president used his endorsement to reward loyalty and punish dissent, and the candidates who survived that filter were least able to win voters beyond his base.

The White House did not respond to USA TODAY’s request for comment on whether Trump regretted his picks. The silence leaves the blame game to run unchecked, with the president’s allies and critics arguing in public about a defeat that cost them Congress.

Why It Matters

The endorsement record matters because it will shape how the next Republican primary season is fought. If Trump’s backing is no longer a ticket to victory in November, candidates will have less reason to compete for it — and less reason to shape their campaigns around loyalty to him. That would weaken the single most powerful lever he has held over his party since 2016.

It also matters for the Democrats’ new majorities. The scale of the rout gives the incoming Congress a mandate the White House cannot easily dismiss. And with 15% of non-MAGA Republicans crossing over, the results suggest the president’s grip on voters outside his core has loosened, not tightened.

What Happens Next

More than 20 House races are still to be called, along with the Senate contests in Alaska and Mississippi, so the final size of the Democratic majorities is not yet fixed. But the shape of the defeat is clear, and the argument over who caused it will shape the Republican Party’s 2028 contest — and whether the next endorsements reward electability or obedience.

For Trump, the question is whether he adjusts. His primary record — 96% — shows his base still follows his lead; his general-election record — 67% and falling — shows the rest of the country increasingly does not. The gap between those two numbers is now the central fact of Republican politics.

Read more: James Talarico Stuns Ken Paxton to Win Texas Senate Seat; Amy Acton Beats Vivek Ramaswamy to Become Ohio’s First Woman Governor; Annie Andrews Stuns Darline Graham to Win South Carolina Senate Seat.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was Trump’s endorsement win rate in the 2026 midterms?

His backed candidates won 67% of their general-election races, down from 89% two years ago and 79% in 2020.

How did his endorsed candidates do in the primaries?

They won 96% of their Republican primaries, showing his endorsement still settles nominations even as it failed to deliver general-election wins.

Which high-profile Trump-backed candidates lost?

Ken Paxton lost the Texas Senate race to James Talarico by 12 points, Darline Graham lost in South Carolina, and Vivek Ramaswamy lost the Ohio governor’s race to Amy Acton by 8 points.

How many Trump-backed House and governor candidates lost?

Forty-six of his backed House candidates lost, and only nine of his 23 picks for governor won.

What did exit polls show about Republican voters?

Exit polls showed 15% of non-MAGA Republicans defected to Democrats, a shift that helped turn close races into Democratic wins.